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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.01+6.30vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.13+4.87vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College3.56+2.50vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont2.70+4.55vs Predicted
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5Boston College2.90+2.78vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University2.00+5.35vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida0.73+8.92vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37-2.09vs Predicted
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9Harvard University2.42+0.54vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.76-1.65vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University3.23-4.39vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.82-3.68vs Predicted
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13Boston University2.97-5.23vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire0.27+2.85vs Predicted
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15Middlebury College1.26-1.17vs Predicted
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16Wesleyan University0.33+0.57vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.23-0.20vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College1.05-3.27vs Predicted
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19Bates College1.28-5.20vs Predicted
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20U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.97-12.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.3Brown University3.010.1%1st Place
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6.87Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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5.5Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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8.55University of Vermont2.700.1%1st Place
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7.78Boston College2.900.1%1st Place
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11.35Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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15.92University of South Florida0.730.0%1st Place
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5.91Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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9.54Harvard University2.420.0%1st Place
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8.35University of Rhode Island2.760.1%1st Place
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6.61Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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8.32Tufts University2.820.1%1st Place
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7.77Boston University2.970.1%1st Place
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16.85University of New Hampshire0.270.0%1st Place
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13.83Middlebury College1.260.0%1st Place
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16.57Wesleyan University0.330.0%1st Place
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16.8Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.230.0%1st Place
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14.73Connecticut College1.050.0%1st Place
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13.8Bates College1.280.0%1st Place
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7.66U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.970.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Elstrodt | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 13.0% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 5.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Peter Lynn | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Beringer | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Dylan Hancock | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 15.8% | 13.4% |
| Trevor Long | 10.5% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jackson Wagner | 3.1% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Brendan Read | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Conner Harding | 9.9% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Bitney | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Robby Gearon | 6.6% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| River Iannaccone | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 13.7% | 19.3% | 25.4% |
| Alexander Baskin | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 6.8% | 4.2% |
| Lillian Saul | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 14.8% | 17.2% | 23.6% |
| Matthew Schaefer | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 14.3% | 20.5% | 23.5% |
| Sam Simonds | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 14.1% | 13.1% | 11.2% | 6.1% |
| Dylan Whitcraft | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 10.9% | 6.6% | 3.0% |
| August Sturm | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.