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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.24+1.96vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.73+4.96vs Predicted
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3Boston College3.35+2.07vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island3.09+1.75vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida1.23+7.17vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.39+1.96vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.20-1.53vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.36+3.68vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.29-0.75vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90-3.85vs Predicted
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11Boston University2.51-3.42vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.53-0.75vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.42-1.91vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont1.77-3.77vs Predicted
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15Middlebury College-0.68+1.58vs Predicted
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16University of New Hampshire-0.53+0.42vs Predicted
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17Wesleyan University-1.00+0.25vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.15-5.85vs Predicted
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19Connecticut College0.02-3.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.96Yale University4.240.3%1st Place
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6.96Roger Williams University2.730.1%1st Place
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5.07Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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5.75University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
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12.17University of South Florida1.230.0%1st Place
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7.96Tufts University2.390.0%1st Place
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5.47Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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11.68Brown University1.360.0%1st Place
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8.25Bowdoin College2.290.0%1st Place
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6.15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.1%1st Place
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7.58Boston University2.510.0%1st Place
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11.25Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.530.0%1st Place
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11.09Northeastern University1.420.0%1st Place
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10.23University of Vermont1.770.0%1st Place
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16.58Middlebury College-0.680.0%1st Place
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16.42University of New Hampshire-0.530.0%1st Place
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17.25Wesleyan University-1.000.0%1st Place
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12.15Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.150.0%1st Place
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15.04Connecticut College0.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Baird | 27.7% | 24.8% | 16.4% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Petrovic | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Wade Waddell | 12.7% | 13.0% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dakota Northrup | 9.1% | 8.4% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Stukbauer | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 6.4% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Florian Eenkema Van Dijk | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 10.5% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Meredith Morran | 1.9% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Jack Fullerton | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 7.5% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Moreno | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Caso | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Chris Colbeth | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Vincent Yannelli | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Alexie Lessing | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 10.3% | 17.7% | 23.7% | 27.8% |
| Morgan Tanski | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 10.2% | 20.9% | 25.5% | 21.0% |
| Catherine Streich | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 7.9% | 12.7% | 22.8% | 41.8% |
| Braden Foster | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| John Pearson | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 17.3% | 18.8% | 16.4% | 7.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.