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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.24+1.97vs Predicted
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2Boston College3.35+3.02vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.39+5.09vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University1.42+7.35vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.29+3.55vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont1.77+4.05vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.73-0.12vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90-1.51vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida1.23+2.74vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.20-4.65vs Predicted
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11Middlebury College-0.68+5.77vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island3.09-6.06vs Predicted
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13Brown University1.36-1.69vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.53-3.01vs Predicted
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15Boston University2.51-7.43vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.15-3.96vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College0.02-1.77vs Predicted
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18University of New Hampshire-0.53-1.50vs Predicted
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19Wesleyan University-1.00-1.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.97Yale University4.240.3%1st Place
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5.02Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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8.09Tufts University2.390.0%1st Place
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11.35Northeastern University1.420.0%1st Place
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8.55Bowdoin College2.290.0%1st Place
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10.05University of Vermont1.770.0%1st Place
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6.88Roger Williams University2.730.1%1st Place
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6.49U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.1%1st Place
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11.74University of South Florida1.230.0%1st Place
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5.35Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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16.77Middlebury College-0.680.0%1st Place
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5.94University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
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11.31Brown University1.360.0%1st Place
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10.99Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.530.0%1st Place
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7.57Boston University2.510.1%1st Place
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12.04Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.150.0%1st Place
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15.23Connecticut College0.020.0%1st Place
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16.5University of New Hampshire-0.530.0%1st Place
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17.14Wesleyan University-1.000.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Baird | 28.5% | 22.5% | 18.2% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wade Waddell | 13.0% | 12.5% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Florian Eenkema Van Dijk | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Chris Colbeth | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Jack Fullerton | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Yannelli | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Petrovic | 6.5% | 5.6% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Stukbauer | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 13.5% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 10.1% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexie Lessing | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 10.0% | 17.4% | 27.3% | 26.8% |
| Dakota Northrup | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Meredith Morran | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 8.2% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Sarah Caso | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Alex Moreno | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Braden Foster | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 10.4% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 0.4% |
| John Pearson | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 8.8% | 15.2% | 21.5% | 15.6% | 10.5% |
| Morgan Tanski | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 12.8% | 18.7% | 22.9% | 22.9% |
| Catherine Streich | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 7.1% | 15.9% | 23.5% | 38.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.