← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Yale University4.24+1.92vs Predicted
-
2Brown University1.36+9.56vs Predicted
-
3Boston College3.35+2.05vs Predicted
-
4Tufts University2.39+4.03vs Predicted
-
5Northeastern University1.42+6.47vs Predicted
-
6University of Rhode Island3.09-0.31vs Predicted
-
7Bowdoin College2.29+1.32vs Predicted
-
8University of Vermont1.77+2.27vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90-2.78vs Predicted
-
10Middlebury College-0.68+6.68vs Predicted
-
11Roger Williams University2.73-4.09vs Predicted
-
12Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.53-0.82vs Predicted
-
13University of South Florida1.23-1.34vs Predicted
-
14Boston University2.51-6.36vs Predicted
-
15Harvard University3.20-9.55vs Predicted
-
16Connecticut College0.02-0.74vs Predicted
-
17Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.15-4.97vs Predicted
-
18University of New Hampshire-0.53-1.47vs Predicted
-
19Wesleyan University-1.00-1.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.92Yale University4.240.3%1st Place
-
11.56Brown University1.360.0%1st Place
-
5.05Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
-
8.03Tufts University2.390.0%1st Place
-
11.47Northeastern University1.420.0%1st Place
-
5.69University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
-
8.32Bowdoin College2.290.0%1st Place
-
10.27University of Vermont1.770.0%1st Place
-
6.22U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.1%1st Place
-
16.68Middlebury College-0.680.0%1st Place
-
6.91Roger Williams University2.730.1%1st Place
-
11.18Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.530.0%1st Place
-
11.66University of South Florida1.230.0%1st Place
-
7.64Boston University2.510.1%1st Place
-
5.45Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
-
15.26Connecticut College0.020.0%1st Place
-
12.03Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.150.0%1st Place
-
16.53University of New Hampshire-0.530.0%1st Place
-
17.13Wesleyan University-1.000.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Baird | 29.1% | 22.9% | 16.1% | 12.4% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Meredith Morran | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| Wade Waddell | 12.7% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Florian Eenkema Van Dijk | 2.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Colbeth | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Dakota Northrup | 10.7% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Fullerton | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Yannelli | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexie Lessing | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 9.2% | 14.2% | 29.2% | 27.2% |
| Daniel Petrovic | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Caso | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Kelly Stukbauer | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 5.8% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Alex Moreno | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 10.8% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Pearson | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 9.4% | 17.0% | 22.8% | 15.5% | 8.4% |
| Braden Foster | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 14.5% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 0.2% |
| Morgan Tanski | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 23.2% |
| Catherine Streich | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 8.2% | 14.4% | 21.7% | 40.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.