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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.60+4.08vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+4.04vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.58+6.46vs Predicted
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4Hampton University0.58+6.27vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.71+3.16vs Predicted
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6Washington College0.19+7.70vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.98+0.21vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.82-1.31vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+1.87vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.42-4.80vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.59-2.48vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-4.53vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.79-5.45vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.60-2.20vs Predicted
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15Drexel University0.23-1.67vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College0.50-3.63vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.46-3.85vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia-0.34-3.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.08U. S. Naval Academy2.6014.2%1st Place
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6.04St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.1%1st Place
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9.46University of Pennsylvania1.584.5%1st Place
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10.27Hampton University0.583.2%1st Place
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8.16Webb Institute1.716.0%1st Place
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13.7Washington College0.191.3%1st Place
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7.21Fordham University1.987.1%1st Place
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6.69George Washington University1.8210.2%1st Place
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10.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.993.0%1st Place
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5.2Georgetown University2.4213.0%1st Place
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8.52Old Dominion University1.595.1%1st Place
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7.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.776.7%1st Place
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7.55Cornell University1.797.1%1st Place
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11.8Christopher Newport University0.601.8%1st Place
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13.33Drexel University0.231.6%1st Place
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12.37SUNY Maritime College0.502.1%1st Place
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13.15Princeton University0.461.8%1st Place
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14.14University of Virginia-0.341.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 14.2% | 13.9% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Cole Woodworth | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| Tyler Brown | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% |
| Calvin Schmid | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 15.2% | 20.2% |
| Jacob Zils | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 10.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 3.1% |
| Enzo Menditto | 13.0% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Diogo Silva | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Sophia Devling | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Aston Atherton | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 7.9% |
| Aidan Gurskis | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 15.7% | 16.8% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 8.9% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 14.4% | 15.2% |
| Maxwell Penders | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 16.4% | 23.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.