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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.98+6.31vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+4.09vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.60+1.95vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.42+1.22vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+2.38vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.79+1.56vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+3.74vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.82-1.06vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.71-0.89vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.59-1.65vs Predicted
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11Hampton University0.58-0.93vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College0.50+0.39vs Predicted
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13Drexel University0.23+0.42vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.58-4.52vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.46-1.64vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University0.60-4.15vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.19-3.40vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia-0.34-3.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.31Fordham University1.987.0%1st Place
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6.09St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.3%1st Place
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4.95U. S. Naval Academy2.6015.1%1st Place
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5.22Georgetown University2.4212.8%1st Place
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7.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.6%1st Place
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7.56Cornell University1.796.8%1st Place
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10.74U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.992.8%1st Place
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6.94George Washington University1.827.8%1st Place
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8.11Webb Institute1.716.5%1st Place
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8.35Old Dominion University1.595.9%1st Place
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10.07Hampton University0.583.5%1st Place
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12.39SUNY Maritime College0.501.8%1st Place
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13.42Drexel University0.231.7%1st Place
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9.48University of Pennsylvania1.584.2%1st Place
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13.36Princeton University0.461.5%1st Place
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11.85Christopher Newport University0.601.8%1st Place
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13.6Washington College0.191.4%1st Place
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14.18University of Virginia-0.341.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Zils | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 15.1% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Enzo Menditto | 12.8% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Sophia Devling | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 3.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Calvin Schmid | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Diogo Silva | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Tyler Brown | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.4% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 8.8% |
| Aidan Gurskis | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 15.4% | 16.6% |
| Cole Woodworth | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 15.1% | 16.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 6.2% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 14.8% | 18.4% |
| Maxwell Penders | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 15.9% | 25.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.