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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+5.08vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.60+3.11vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.98+4.37vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.79+3.62vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.59+3.32vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+1.31vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+3.95vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.42-2.93vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.71-0.77vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.58-0.60vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.82-4.10vs Predicted
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12Hampton University0.58-1.82vs Predicted
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13Washington College0.19+0.67vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.50-1.76vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.46-1.82vs Predicted
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16Drexel University0.23-2.75vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia-0.34-2.64vs Predicted
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18Christopher Newport University0.60-6.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.08St. Mary's College of Maryland2.579.6%1st Place
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5.11U. S. Naval Academy2.6014.2%1st Place
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7.37Fordham University1.986.8%1st Place
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7.62Cornell University1.797.8%1st Place
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8.32Old Dominion University1.596.8%1st Place
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7.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.776.4%1st Place
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10.95U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.992.2%1st Place
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5.07Georgetown University2.4215.2%1st Place
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8.23Webb Institute1.715.1%1st Place
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9.4University of Pennsylvania1.584.5%1st Place
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6.9George Washington University1.828.8%1st Place
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10.18Hampton University0.582.8%1st Place
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13.67Washington College0.191.6%1st Place
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12.24SUNY Maritime College0.501.7%1st Place
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13.18Princeton University0.461.8%1st Place
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13.25Drexel University0.231.7%1st Place
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14.36University of Virginia-0.341.1%1st Place
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11.74Christopher Newport University0.602.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 9.6% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 14.2% | 13.4% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Zils | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Sophia Devling | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Diogo Silva | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 3.2% |
| Enzo Menditto | 15.2% | 14.2% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Schmid | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Cole Woodworth | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Brown | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 1.9% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 16.9% | 19.5% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 9.5% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 15.4% | 14.6% |
| Aidan Gurskis | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 14.9% |
| Maxwell Penders | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 17.0% | 26.5% |
| Aston Atherton | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 6.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.