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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.98+6.17vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.42+3.18vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.79+4.59vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+1.93vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+2.54vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.82+0.85vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.60-1.86vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.71+0.11vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+1.83vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.58-0.51vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.59-2.54vs Predicted
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12Hampton University0.58-2.05vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.46+0.25vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.50-1.66vs Predicted
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15Drexel University0.23-1.50vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.19-2.28vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University0.60-5.32vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia-0.34-3.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.17Fordham University1.987.1%1st Place
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5.18Georgetown University2.4213.2%1st Place
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7.59Cornell University1.797.0%1st Place
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5.93St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.7%1st Place
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7.54Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.0%1st Place
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6.85George Washington University1.827.2%1st Place
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5.14U. S. Naval Academy2.6014.4%1st Place
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8.11Webb Institute1.717.0%1st Place
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10.83U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.993.3%1st Place
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9.49University of Pennsylvania1.584.0%1st Place
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8.46Old Dominion University1.594.8%1st Place
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9.95Hampton University0.583.1%1st Place
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13.25Princeton University0.461.7%1st Place
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12.34SUNY Maritime College0.502.4%1st Place
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13.5Drexel University0.231.6%1st Place
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13.72Washington College0.190.9%1st Place
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11.68Christopher Newport University0.602.9%1st Place
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14.28University of Virginia-0.340.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Zils | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Enzo Menditto | 13.2% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.7% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 14.4% | 13.7% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Schmid | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 3.5% |
| Cole Woodworth | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Diogo Silva | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Brown | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 15.6% | 13.9% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 8.5% |
| Aidan Gurskis | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 12.0% | 15.3% | 18.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 15.0% | 20.2% |
| Aston Atherton | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 6.0% |
| Maxwell Penders | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 16.7% | 25.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.