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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.98+6.16vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.82+4.74vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+4.40vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.42+1.21vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.60+0.08vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.71+2.23vs Predicted
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7Hampton University0.58+3.39vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-1.83vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.79-1.42vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+0.80vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania1.58-1.64vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.60-0.34vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.50-0.81vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.46-0.64vs Predicted
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15Drexel University0.23-1.56vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University1.59-7.58vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.19-3.38vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia-0.34-3.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.16Fordham University1.987.5%1st Place
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6.74George Washington University1.829.0%1st Place
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7.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.776.8%1st Place
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5.21Georgetown University2.4213.0%1st Place
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5.08U. S. Naval Academy2.6014.3%1st Place
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8.23Webb Institute1.715.8%1st Place
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10.39Hampton University0.583.0%1st Place
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6.17St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.5%1st Place
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7.58Cornell University1.796.3%1st Place
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10.8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.993.5%1st Place
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9.36University of Pennsylvania1.584.1%1st Place
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11.66Christopher Newport University0.602.4%1st Place
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12.19SUNY Maritime College0.502.5%1st Place
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13.36Princeton University0.461.3%1st Place
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13.44Drexel University0.231.2%1st Place
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8.42Old Dominion University1.596.4%1st Place
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13.62Washington College0.191.4%1st Place
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14.2University of Virginia-0.340.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Zils | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Enzo Menditto | 13.0% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 14.3% | 13.4% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Schmid | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Tyler Brown | 3.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 1.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Sophia Devling | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 4.2% |
| Cole Woodworth | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Aston Atherton | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 5.9% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 8.7% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 14.3% | 15.4% |
| Aidan Gurskis | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 14.3% | 17.2% |
| Diogo Silva | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 15.6% | 19.3% |
| Maxwell Penders | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 15.6% | 24.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.