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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.54+8.69vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.25+5.17vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.44+3.57vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.47+2.54vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+1.29vs Predicted
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6Washington College2.45+4.43vs Predicted
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7George Washington University3.41-0.29vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24-0.79vs Predicted
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9Fordham University3.52-2.54vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.67-4.32vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia1.99+0.99vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82-3.17vs Predicted
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13Hampton University2.26-1.94vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.71-1.08vs Predicted
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15Villanova University1.37-1.27vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.69-3.09vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania2.87-8.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.69Cornell University2.540.0%1st Place
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7.17SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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6.57U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
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6.54Georgetown University3.470.1%1st Place
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6.29St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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10.43Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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6.71George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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7.21Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.1%1st Place
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6.46Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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5.68Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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11.99University of Virginia1.990.0%1st Place
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8.83U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
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11.06Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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12.92Christopher Newport University1.710.0%1st Place
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13.73Villanova University1.370.0%1st Place
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12.91Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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8.81University of Pennsylvania2.870.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Kelter | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 3.9% | 2.6% |
| Zachary Hill | 9.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Michael Popp | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Sean Golden | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Markus Edegran | 10.7% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Eric Siegel | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 3.7% |
| Kai Friesecke | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Eddie Cox | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Will Holz | 7.9% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Augie Dale | 11.2% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Samuel Patterson | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 14.3% | 12.6% | 13.6% |
| Max Neubelt | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 7.0% |
| Amanda Attardi | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 12.6% | 17.5% | 18.5% |
| Bailey Cornog | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 17.1% | 32.3% |
| Alex Dzinbal | 1.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 17.6% | 17.9% |
| Drew Gallagher | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 1.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.