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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.54+6.96vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.27+3.03vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.28+2.01vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.30+3.09vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.44+2.97vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.16-0.44vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.13+5.48vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13-1.75vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.26-1.44vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.14-1.46vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland1.79-3.75vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.73-2.11vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College-0.13+0.15vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.27-2.80vs Predicted
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15Hampton University0.72-3.17vs Predicted
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16Drexel University-0.85-0.89vs Predicted
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17Washington College-0.55-2.71vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia-0.78-3.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.96Fordham University1.545.5%1st Place
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5.03Georgetown University2.2714.6%1st Place
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5.01U. S. Naval Academy2.2814.3%1st Place
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7.09Webb Institute1.307.8%1st Place
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7.97George Washington University1.445.3%1st Place
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5.56University of Pennsylvania2.1611.8%1st Place
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12.48U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.131.4%1st Place
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6.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.138.8%1st Place
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7.56Old Dominion University1.266.5%1st Place
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8.54Cornell University1.145.1%1st Place
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7.25St. Mary's College of Maryland1.797.5%1st Place
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9.89Christopher Newport University0.734.5%1st Place
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13.15SUNY Maritime College-0.131.0%1st Place
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11.2Princeton University0.272.2%1st Place
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11.83Hampton University0.722.1%1st Place
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15.11Drexel University-0.850.4%1st Place
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14.29Washington College-0.550.7%1st Place
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14.82University of Virginia-0.780.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Thress | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Peter Barnard | 14.6% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Welburn | 14.3% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jackson McAliley | 11.8% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Finora | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 6.3% |
| JJ Klempen | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Blake Goodwin | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ava Gustafson | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Landon Cormie | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Bendura | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Luke Barker | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 13.7% | 9.8% |
| Jasper Waldman | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 3.5% |
| Lucas Randle | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 18.9% | 30.6% |
| Austin Latimer | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 14.3% | 18.6% | 19.6% |
| Mason Chapman | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 13.2% | 18.6% | 26.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.