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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.29+4.88vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+1.81vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California2.93+1.22vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii2.89+0.42vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.63+0.17vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine1.06+3.56vs Predicted
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7Santa Barbara City College2.29-1.28vs Predicted
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8Western Washington University1.08+1.31vs Predicted
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9Santa Clara University1.01+0.64vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61-2.02vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles0.61-0.34vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley1.89-4.89vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University1.14-3.84vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-0.30-1.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.88University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.1%1st Place
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3.81University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.2%1st Place
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4.22University of Southern California2.930.2%1st Place
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4.42University of Hawaii2.890.1%1st Place
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5.17Stanford University2.630.1%1st Place
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9.56University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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5.72Santa Barbara City College2.290.1%1st Place
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9.31Western Washington University1.080.0%1st Place
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9.64Santa Clara University1.010.0%1st Place
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7.98Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.0%1st Place
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10.66University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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7.11University of California at Berkeley1.890.0%1st Place
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9.16Arizona State University1.140.0%1st Place
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12.37University of California at Davis-0.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simone Staff | 8.3% | 7.9% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 20.0% | 17.4% | 13.3% | 15.1% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Hecht | 16.5% | 14.7% | 14.5% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Eaton IV | 14.3% | 14.8% | 14.5% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Maria El-Khazindar | 9.1% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Brian MacLean | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 13.7% | 13.9% | 7.5% |
| Silas Barton | 9.8% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Gabe Hill | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 14.4% | 7.9% |
| Melissa Shadden | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 15.0% | 13.7% | 14.2% | 7.2% |
| Ben Brough | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 1.7% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 16.7% | 19.8% | 16.8% |
| Henrik Bey | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.0% |
| Alexander Smith | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 12.9% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 5.1% |
| Joshua Leung | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 15.7% | 51.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.