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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Santa Barbara City College2.29+4.94vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.29+3.76vs Predicted
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3Western Washington University1.08+6.33vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+0.02vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California2.93-0.64vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii2.89-1.56vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+0.67vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.63-3.02vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley1.89-1.81vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine1.06-0.47vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles0.61-0.31vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University1.14-2.75vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-0.30-0.66vs Predicted
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14Santa Clara University1.01-4.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.94Santa Barbara City College2.290.1%1st Place
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5.76University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.1%1st Place
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9.33Western Washington University1.080.0%1st Place
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4.02University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.2%1st Place
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4.36University of Southern California2.930.1%1st Place
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4.44University of Hawaii2.890.1%1st Place
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7.67Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.0%1st Place
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4.98Stanford University2.630.1%1st Place
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7.19University of California at Berkeley1.890.1%1st Place
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9.53University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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10.69University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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9.25Arizona State University1.140.0%1st Place
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12.34University of California at Davis-0.300.0%1st Place
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9.5Santa Clara University1.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silas Barton | 7.9% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Simone Staff | 9.0% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Gabe Hill | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 13.1% | 13.9% | 6.7% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 17.2% | 16.8% | 15.8% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Hecht | 14.2% | 15.8% | 14.2% | 13.5% | 12.1% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Charles Eaton IV | 15.0% | 14.0% | 13.7% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 1.2% |
| Maria El-Khazindar | 13.2% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Henrik Bey | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 1.3% |
| Brian MacLean | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 13.1% | 13.7% | 7.6% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 15.9% | 21.4% | 16.2% |
| Alexander Smith | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 7.4% |
| Joshua Leung | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 9.5% | 16.2% | 52.9% |
| Melissa Shadden | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 14.5% | 15.2% | 12.9% | 6.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.