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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.89+3.31vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley1.89+4.94vs Predicted
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3Santa Barbara City College2.29+2.94vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara2.29+1.95vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara3.06-1.00vs Predicted
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6Stanford University2.63-0.86vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+0.66vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine1.06+1.37vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University1.08+0.54vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California2.93-5.69vs Predicted
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11Santa Clara University1.01-1.33vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University1.14-2.72vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-0.30-0.63vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles0.61-3.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.31University of Hawaii2.890.2%1st Place
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6.94University of California at Berkeley1.890.0%1st Place
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5.94Santa Barbara City College2.290.1%1st Place
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5.95University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.1%1st Place
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4.0University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.2%1st Place
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5.14Stanford University2.630.1%1st Place
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7.66Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.1%1st Place
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9.37University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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9.54Western Washington University1.080.0%1st Place
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4.31University of Southern California2.930.1%1st Place
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9.67Santa Clara University1.010.0%1st Place
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9.28Arizona State University1.140.0%1st Place
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12.37University of California at Davis-0.300.0%1st Place
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10.51University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Eaton IV | 16.7% | 15.1% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Henrik Bey | 4.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 0.4% |
| Silas Barton | 8.7% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Simone Staff | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 16.5% | 18.0% | 15.4% | 13.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maria El-Khazindar | 12.0% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Ben Brough | 5.4% | 3.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| Brian MacLean | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 14.0% | 14.7% | 7.1% |
| Gabe Hill | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 15.9% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 7.4% |
| Matthew Hecht | 15.0% | 16.0% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Melissa Shadden | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 15.1% | 14.8% | 7.8% |
| Alexander Smith | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 7.7% |
| Joshua Leung | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 15.1% | 54.2% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 16.5% | 21.8% | 13.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.