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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California2.93+3.23vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+1.79vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley1.89+4.06vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii2.89+0.39vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara2.29+1.06vs Predicted
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6Stanford University2.63-0.89vs Predicted
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7Western Washington University1.08+2.15vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61-0.14vs Predicted
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9Santa Barbara City College2.29-3.00vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine1.06-0.46vs Predicted
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11Santa Clara University1.01-1.31vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University1.14-2.73vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-0.30-0.64vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles0.61-3.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.23University of Southern California2.930.2%1st Place
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3.79University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.2%1st Place
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7.06University of California at Berkeley1.890.1%1st Place
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4.39University of Hawaii2.890.1%1st Place
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6.06University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.1%1st Place
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5.11Stanford University2.630.1%1st Place
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9.15Western Washington University1.080.0%1st Place
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7.86Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.0%1st Place
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6.0Santa Barbara City College2.290.1%1st Place
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9.54University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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9.69Santa Clara University1.010.0%1st Place
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9.27Arizona State University1.140.0%1st Place
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12.36University of California at Davis-0.300.0%1st Place
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10.52University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Hecht | 15.9% | 16.9% | 13.6% | 14.0% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 20.5% | 16.5% | 15.6% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Henrik Bey | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Charles Eaton IV | 13.6% | 17.2% | 13.4% | 13.6% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Simone Staff | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Maria El-Khazindar | 11.3% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 12.9% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Gabe Hill | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 12.1% | 5.8% |
| Ben Brough | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| Silas Barton | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Brian MacLean | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 14.5% | 12.4% | 7.9% |
| Melissa Shadden | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 14.0% | 15.5% | 7.6% |
| Alexander Smith | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 7.2% |
| Joshua Leung | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 15.2% | 53.9% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 15.2% | 21.9% | 13.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.