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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+2.95vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.55+2.36vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley1.57+4.35vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii2.42+0.82vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California2.47-0.45vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.05-0.03vs Predicted
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7Santa Barbara City College1.61+0.18vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.39-0.24vs Predicted
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10California State University Channel Islands-0.85+4.51vs Predicted
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11University of Victoria0.93-1.71vs Predicted
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12Western Washington University0.58-1.49vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine0.08-1.01vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego0.31-2.64vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles0.92-5.47vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis-0.43-2.69vs Predicted
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17California State University Channel Islands-0.85-2.49vs Predicted
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18Santa Clara University0.21-6.40vs Predicted
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19Arizona State University-1.11-4.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.95University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.2%1st Place
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4.36Stanford University2.550.2%1st Place
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7.35University of California at Berkeley1.570.0%1st Place
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4.82University of Hawaii2.420.1%1st Place
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4.55University of Southern California2.470.2%1st Place
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5.97University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.1%1st Place
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7.18Santa Barbara City College1.610.1%1st Place
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7.76Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.390.1%1st Place
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14.51California State University Channel Islands-0.850.0%1st Place
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9.29University of Victoria0.930.0%1st Place
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10.51Western Washington University0.580.0%1st Place
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11.99University of California at Irvine0.080.0%1st Place
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11.36University of California at San Diego0.310.0%1st Place
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9.53University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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13.31University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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14.51California State University Channel Islands-0.850.0%1st Place
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11.6Santa Clara University0.210.0%1st Place
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14.96Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Henken | 18.5% | 17.9% | 13.9% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Martina Sly | 15.5% | 15.0% | 13.6% | 13.3% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Soren Wilde | 13.9% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 15.1% | 14.9% | 13.6% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ginger Luckey | 8.6% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Long | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Cornella | 5.8% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Steward | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 15.4% | 22.1% | 29.6% | 0.0% |
| Ted Alley | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Kaas | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Philip Tagatac | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 14.6% | 12.1% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| Brett Farrell | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 1.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 4.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Alana McSween | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 12.7% | 16.5% | 18.4% | 14.4% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Steward | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 15.4% | 22.1% | 29.6% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Culkin | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Conor McGee | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 11.6% | 20.6% | 39.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.