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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Berkeley1.57+6.21vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.42+2.71vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+1.05vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.55+0.52vs Predicted
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5Santa Barbara City College1.61+2.06vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California2.47-1.18vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara2.05-1.15vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles0.92+0.23vs Predicted
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10California State University Channel Islands-0.85+4.50vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.39-3.22vs Predicted
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12University of Victoria0.93-2.54vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego0.31-1.70vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-0.43-0.60vs Predicted
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15Western Washington University0.58-4.41vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine0.08-4.11vs Predicted
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17California State University Channel Islands-0.85-2.50vs Predicted
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18Santa Clara University0.21-6.37vs Predicted
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19Arizona State University-1.11-4.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.21University of California at Berkeley1.570.1%1st Place
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4.71University of Hawaii2.420.1%1st Place
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4.05University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.2%1st Place
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4.52Stanford University2.550.2%1st Place
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7.06Santa Barbara City College1.610.1%1st Place
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4.82University of Southern California2.470.1%1st Place
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5.85University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.1%1st Place
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9.23University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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14.5California State University Channel Islands-0.850.0%1st Place
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7.78Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.390.0%1st Place
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9.46University of Victoria0.930.0%1st Place
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11.3University of California at San Diego0.310.0%1st Place
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13.4University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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10.59Western Washington University0.580.0%1st Place
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11.89University of California at Irvine0.080.0%1st Place
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14.5California State University Channel Islands-0.850.0%1st Place
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11.63Santa Clara University0.210.0%1st Place
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14.99Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Soren Wilde | 14.0% | 14.0% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Henken | 16.2% | 17.3% | 16.2% | 13.5% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Martina Sly | 16.6% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Long | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 13.3% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ginger Luckey | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 4.2% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Steward | 0.3% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 23.3% | 29.1% | 0.0% |
| David Cornella | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ted Alley | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Brett Farrell | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Alana McSween | 0.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 15.8% | 19.9% | 14.9% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Kaas | 1.0% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Philip Tagatac | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 14.3% | 10.6% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Steward | 0.3% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 23.3% | 29.1% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Culkin | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor McGee | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 11.4% | 19.6% | 41.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.