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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California2.93+3.22vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+1.78vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley1.89+3.72vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii2.89+0.20vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara2.29+0.62vs Predicted
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6Stanford University2.63-1.18vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+0.26vs Predicted
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8Santa Barbara City College2.29-2.48vs Predicted
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9University of California at Irvine1.06-0.34vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University1.14-1.53vs Predicted
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11Santa Clara University1.01-2.02vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles0.61-2.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.22University of Southern California2.930.1%1st Place
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3.78University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.2%1st Place
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6.72University of California at Berkeley1.890.1%1st Place
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4.2University of Hawaii2.890.2%1st Place
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5.62University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.1%1st Place
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4.82Stanford University2.630.1%1st Place
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7.26Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.1%1st Place
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5.52Santa Barbara City College2.290.1%1st Place
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8.66University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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8.47Arizona State University1.140.0%1st Place
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8.98Santa Clara University1.010.0%1st Place
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9.76University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Hecht | 15.0% | 14.3% | 14.9% | 14.7% | 12.6% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 18.1% | 19.2% | 15.3% | 14.0% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henrik Bey | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 6.8% | 3.3% |
| Charles Eaton IV | 15.1% | 16.2% | 15.6% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Simone Staff | 8.4% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 0.8% |
| Maria El-Khazindar | 11.5% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Ben Brough | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 6.0% |
| Silas Barton | 11.2% | 7.5% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| Brian MacLean | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 14.9% | 18.3% | 15.2% |
| Alexander Smith | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 18.6% | 14.6% |
| Melissa Shadden | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 11.6% | 15.4% | 16.7% | 22.2% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 1.1% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 18.3% | 35.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.