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📊 Prediction Accuracy
18.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+2.83vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley1.57+4.78vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.05+2.48vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.47+0.45vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii2.42-0.31vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.92+2.80vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.55-2.68vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.39-0.61vs Predicted
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9Santa Barbara City College1.61-2.27vs Predicted
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10California State University Channel Islands-0.85+2.98vs Predicted
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12University of Victoria0.93-3.25vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego0.31-2.37vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine0.08-2.84vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-0.85-2.02vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-1.11-2.61vs Predicted
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17Santa Clara University0.21-6.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.83University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.2%1st Place
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6.78University of California at Berkeley1.570.1%1st Place
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5.48University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.1%1st Place
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4.45University of Southern California2.470.2%1st Place
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4.69University of Hawaii2.420.1%1st Place
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8.8University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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4.32Stanford University2.550.2%1st Place
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7.39Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.390.0%1st Place
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6.73Santa Barbara City College1.610.1%1st Place
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12.98California State University Channel Islands-0.850.0%1st Place
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8.75University of Victoria0.930.0%1st Place
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10.63University of California at San Diego0.310.0%1st Place
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11.16University of California at Irvine0.080.0%1st Place
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12.98California State University Channel Islands-0.850.0%1st Place
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13.39Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
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10.63Santa Clara University0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Henken | 20.9% | 18.1% | 13.6% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ginger Luckey | 9.2% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 15.3% | 13.4% | 14.5% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Soren Wilde | 13.2% | 13.8% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Martina Sly | 15.2% | 14.0% | 15.8% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Cornella | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Long | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Steward | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 24.8% | 33.7% | 0.0% |
| Ted Alley | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Brett Farrell | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 15.6% | 17.0% | 12.5% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Philip Tagatac | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 11.2% | 16.6% | 16.5% | 17.4% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Steward | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 24.8% | 33.7% | 0.0% |
| Conor McGee | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 12.0% | 21.1% | 45.7% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Culkin | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 13.3% | 19.4% | 12.5% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.