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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.16+4.75vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.14+6.56vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.30+3.97vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13+2.34vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.27+0.16vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.28-0.93vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.22+1.34vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.05-1.93vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.54-0.95vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.13+2.69vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College-0.02+1.26vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.44-3.71vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.73-3.23vs Predicted
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14Hampton University0.72-2.08vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.27-3.79vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia-0.78-1.13vs Predicted
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17Washington College-0.55-2.48vs Predicted
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18Drexel University-0.85-2.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.75University of Pennsylvania2.1611.8%1st Place
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8.56Cornell University1.145.2%1st Place
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6.97Webb Institute1.308.7%1st Place
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6.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.138.3%1st Place
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5.16Georgetown University2.2712.8%1st Place
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5.07U. S. Naval Academy2.2813.9%1st Place
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8.34Old Dominion University1.225.2%1st Place
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6.07St. Mary's College of Maryland2.0510.7%1st Place
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8.05Fordham University1.545.2%1st Place
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12.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.131.9%1st Place
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12.26SUNY Maritime College-0.021.4%1st Place
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8.29George Washington University1.445.2%1st Place
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9.77Christopher Newport University0.733.4%1st Place
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11.92Hampton University0.721.7%1st Place
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11.21Princeton University0.272.3%1st Place
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14.87University of Virginia-0.780.9%1st Place
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14.52Washington College-0.550.8%1st Place
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15.14Drexel University-0.850.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson McAliley | 11.8% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ava Gustafson | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Everett Botwinick | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| JJ Klempen | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Barnard | 12.8% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Welburn | 13.9% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierce Brindley | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Charlie Anderson | 10.7% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Robert Finora | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 14.2% | 11.3% | 6.9% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 4.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Joshua Bendura | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 4.3% |
| Jasper Waldman | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 2.4% |
| Mason Chapman | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 21.0% | 27.0% |
| Austin Latimer | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 16.1% | 18.9% | 19.9% |
| Lucas Randle | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 17.5% | 34.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.