Race 1A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Tom Groskopf 12.1% 11.3% 13.5% 12.2% 11.4% 9.3% 11.1% 7.6% 5.7% 2.9% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2%
Mason Wolters 14.0% 10.5% 13.5% 12.2% 12.7% 10.3% 7.4% 8.2% 4.9% 3.5% 1.9% 0.9% 0.0%
Carolyn Keck 8.3% 10.6% 9.8% 11.1% 8.9% 11.3% 12.3% 10.3% 6.6% 6.2% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4%
Noah Rosenthal 6.7% 7.5% 6.6% 9.9% 9.1% 10.9% 10.5% 9.5% 10.2% 9.7% 6.5% 2.3% 0.6%
Alison Kent 17.5% 17.4% 14.7% 11.3% 11.7% 9.1% 7.3% 4.8% 3.3% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Eric Villadsen 5.0% 5.6% 6.0% 6.0% 7.8% 7.7% 8.5% 11.2% 11.0% 11.9% 10.8% 6.1% 2.4%
Ryan Mabie 3.3% 3.9% 3.5% 4.1% 5.6% 5.0% 5.8% 7.8% 10.4% 13.3% 15.1% 15.1% 7.1%
Ryan Clulo 7.0% 6.1% 7.1% 8.3% 7.1% 10.7% 10.5% 11.0% 12.2% 9.6% 5.7% 3.7% 1.0%
Jeff Zita 5.1% 4.6% 4.8% 6.2% 6.9% 6.7% 9.8% 10.7% 12.2% 12.5% 10.5% 7.3% 2.7%
Jacob Henley 1.9% 2.2% 3.2% 3.4% 2.7% 4.8% 4.8% 6.1% 9.0% 11.7% 15.9% 20.2% 14.1%
Soren Walljasper 17.2% 18.1% 14.1% 11.8% 12.5% 9.7% 6.0% 5.4% 2.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Geoffrey Owens 0.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.7% 3.5% 3.8% 4.4% 6.8% 9.5% 13.9% 23.7% 25.0%
Nickolas Burr 1.0% 0.3% 1.3% 1.5% 0.9% 1.0% 2.2% 3.0% 4.9% 5.5% 13.3% 18.7% 46.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.