Race 2A

mcsa-fall

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Carolyn Keck 10.0% 9.0% 10.2% 11.3% 10.7% 11.0% 9.0% 10.3% 7.4% 5.4% 3.9% 1.4% 0.4%
Mason Wolters 12.3% 13.2% 12.5% 13.5% 11.0% 9.2% 9.1% 7.7% 6.0% 3.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.1%
Soren Walljasper 16.5% 16.1% 15.6% 11.7% 11.0% 10.6% 8.2% 5.1% 2.8% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Alison Kent 17.3% 15.9% 15.0% 14.0% 9.6% 9.9% 7.7% 4.7% 3.3% 1.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Noah Rosenthal 8.4% 7.7% 8.4% 8.7% 8.2% 10.1% 10.5% 9.9% 10.1% 7.8% 6.1% 3.6% 0.5%
Eric Villadsen 5.3% 3.9% 6.2% 6.5% 8.9% 7.8% 7.8% 11.6% 11.6% 10.9% 10.9% 7.0% 1.6%
Tom Groskopf 14.0% 12.8% 10.7% 11.4% 12.7% 10.3% 8.2% 8.0% 5.2% 3.9% 2.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Jeff Zita 4.3% 6.4% 6.0% 5.8% 5.8% 7.1% 10.3% 10.2% 12.1% 13.5% 9.6% 7.0% 1.9%
Ryan Clulo 5.6% 6.9% 7.3% 7.1% 9.1% 9.8% 10.5% 10.7% 9.7% 10.6% 7.3% 4.1% 1.3%
Ryan Mabie 3.1% 3.8% 3.0% 3.3% 5.0% 5.2% 6.3% 9.0% 10.1% 13.2% 16.2% 13.5% 8.3%
Geoffrey Owens 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 2.5% 3.1% 3.6% 4.4% 4.7% 7.6% 10.6% 15.7% 22.3% 21.5%
Jacob Henley 1.3% 2.0% 2.6% 3.2% 3.1% 4.3% 5.6% 5.8% 8.5% 11.4% 15.1% 20.5% 16.6%
Nickolas Burr 0.7% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% 1.8% 1.1% 2.4% 2.3% 5.6% 6.4% 10.2% 19.1% 47.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.