Race 3A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Alison Kent 17.1% 16.4% 14.7% 12.5% 11.0% 10.7% 6.0% 6.1% 2.5% 1.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0%
Soren Walljasper 17.4% 16.0% 16.5% 11.8% 10.2% 9.5% 6.8% 5.4% 3.2% 2.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Tom Groskopf 11.9% 12.5% 12.7% 11.2% 11.2% 10.9% 10.2% 8.0% 4.8% 4.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
Noah Rosenthal 6.6% 7.1% 8.5% 8.9% 8.9% 11.0% 7.8% 11.5% 10.4% 9.4% 5.8% 3.1% 1.0%
Eric Villadsen 5.5% 5.2% 6.7% 6.0% 7.9% 7.6% 6.7% 11.8% 12.2% 9.6% 11.9% 6.8% 2.1%
Carolyn Keck 10.7% 10.1% 10.0% 10.6% 11.4% 10.6% 9.5% 7.7% 8.2% 5.8% 4.3% 0.7% 0.4%
Jacob Henley 3.3% 2.1% 2.4% 2.9% 4.5% 3.1% 6.7% 6.2% 6.9% 12.0% 15.8% 20.6% 13.5%
Jeff Zita 5.0% 5.5% 4.1% 7.1% 6.1% 7.9% 9.3% 9.7% 13.7% 12.7% 9.6% 6.4% 2.9%
Ryan Clulo 6.5% 6.1% 7.8% 7.7% 8.2% 8.1% 11.4% 11.2% 9.4% 10.3% 7.8% 4.3% 1.2%
Ryan Mabie 3.2% 3.3% 3.2% 3.7% 4.4% 5.9% 8.0% 6.0% 11.5% 13.7% 14.3% 13.9% 8.9%
Nickolas Burr 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 1.5% 1.6% 2.4% 2.3% 4.0% 6.1% 6.3% 11.4% 18.9% 43.3%
Geoffrey Owens 1.0% 1.2% 2.5% 1.9% 3.0% 1.9% 4.8% 4.9% 6.2% 9.1% 13.5% 23.5% 26.5%
Mason Wolters 11.0% 13.8% 10.2% 14.2% 11.6% 10.4% 10.5% 7.5% 4.9% 3.1% 1.9% 0.8% 0.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.