Race 4A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Soren Walljasper 17.7% 15.0% 13.8% 13.0% 11.6% 9.6% 8.3% 5.6% 2.6% 1.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Noah Rosenthal 6.7% 6.5% 8.6% 8.5% 10.2% 11.0% 8.9% 11.5% 8.8% 9.5% 6.2% 3.0% 0.6%
Mason Wolters 12.4% 13.0% 12.0% 11.9% 11.9% 10.5% 10.5% 6.0% 5.9% 3.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
Alison Kent 17.4% 16.4% 13.6% 13.0% 11.3% 9.4% 8.0% 5.0% 3.1% 2.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
Carolyn Keck 10.2% 10.0% 12.3% 9.0% 10.2% 11.1% 9.8% 9.1% 8.5% 5.1% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3%
Tom Groskopf 12.7% 13.9% 11.5% 12.1% 12.0% 9.7% 8.4% 6.9% 5.6% 4.7% 1.7% 0.8% 0.0%
Eric Villadsen 6.0% 5.2% 6.6% 6.7% 5.8% 7.2% 9.6% 9.6% 13.2% 10.4% 10.7% 7.2% 1.8%
Ryan Mabie 2.5% 4.0% 3.2% 4.2% 4.0% 5.5% 6.0% 8.8% 12.0% 12.7% 14.9% 14.9% 7.3%
Ryan Clulo 6.3% 6.7% 6.2% 8.3% 8.5% 8.8% 10.1% 11.6% 9.7% 11.5% 6.8% 4.0% 1.5%
Nickolas Burr 0.8% 0.9% 1.4% 1.5% 2.2% 2.5% 2.2% 2.8% 4.3% 6.5% 11.4% 18.5% 45.0%
Jeff Zita 4.5% 5.3% 6.5% 6.8% 6.6% 7.5% 10.0% 11.6% 10.7% 12.1% 10.3% 5.5% 2.6%
Jacob Henley 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.1% 3.5% 4.4% 4.5% 6.2% 8.4% 11.1% 16.1% 21.0% 15.7%
Geoffrey Owens 1.3% 1.1% 1.8% 1.9% 2.2% 2.8% 3.7% 5.3% 7.2% 9.3% 15.3% 23.1% 25.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.