Race 5A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Alison Kent 17.3% 15.7% 15.4% 12.7% 12.7% 8.4% 6.5% 5.2% 3.3% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
Soren Walljasper 18.2% 14.9% 14.1% 13.2% 12.2% 9.1% 6.2% 5.5% 3.4% 1.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Noah Rosenthal 5.8% 7.4% 8.2% 9.3% 8.4% 10.5% 9.8% 11.8% 9.7% 9.5% 6.0% 2.4% 1.2%
Carolyn Keck 9.1% 9.4% 10.7% 11.5% 11.2% 9.5% 10.9% 8.5% 9.7% 4.6% 3.6% 1.0% 0.3%
Mason Wolters 14.0% 13.6% 13.0% 11.7% 10.4% 11.3% 8.9% 7.3% 4.0% 3.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
Ryan Clulo 6.4% 7.2% 8.0% 7.5% 9.0% 9.1% 10.4% 9.9% 11.6% 7.9% 7.7% 4.0% 1.3%
Eric Villadsen 5.4% 5.7% 6.2% 7.0% 6.4% 7.3% 7.9% 10.0% 11.8% 12.6% 10.3% 7.5% 1.9%
Tom Groskopf 12.1% 13.8% 11.1% 11.6% 10.9% 11.9% 12.0% 6.0% 5.0% 3.1% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1%
Jeff Zita 5.0% 4.4% 5.4% 5.7% 6.9% 7.5% 9.4% 11.3% 11.1% 13.0% 10.3% 7.1% 2.9%
Ryan Mabie 3.4% 3.7% 2.7% 4.0% 4.1% 6.3% 6.0% 8.7% 11.1% 13.3% 15.7% 12.1% 8.9%
Nickolas Burr 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 1.2% 2.0% 2.4% 2.5% 3.5% 4.9% 7.3% 10.4% 21.9% 41.5%
Jacob Henley 1.3% 2.2% 2.7% 2.8% 3.5% 3.9% 5.9% 6.2% 7.8% 11.8% 16.0% 20.8% 15.1%
Geoffrey Owens 1.2% 1.2% 1.7% 1.8% 2.3% 2.8% 3.6% 6.1% 6.6% 9.9% 14.5% 21.7% 26.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.