Race 8A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Mason Wolters 14.4% 10.9% 14.0% 11.0% 12.3% 10.1% 9.3% 7.5% 5.1% 3.3% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Alison Kent 16.3% 17.5% 15.2% 12.7% 11.3% 9.6% 7.1% 4.9% 3.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Noah Rosenthal 5.5% 8.9% 7.6% 9.8% 8.5% 10.4% 10.5% 12.0% 9.3% 10.3% 5.5% 1.5% 0.2%
Soren Walljasper 18.0% 15.6% 15.3% 12.2% 11.4% 8.4% 8.2% 4.9% 4.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Tom Groskopf 13.4% 13.3% 12.2% 13.3% 10.0% 11.4% 7.8% 7.9% 4.9% 4.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Jeff Zita 4.8% 5.3% 5.5% 7.0% 6.5% 8.6% 8.8% 11.5% 14.1% 12.3% 9.2% 5.7% 0.7%
Ryan Mabie 3.6% 3.3% 3.5% 4.1% 5.0% 6.5% 6.1% 8.4% 11.0% 15.0% 20.5% 10.8% 2.2%
Carolyn Keck 9.8% 10.4% 10.8% 9.9% 12.3% 10.8% 10.9% 9.2% 7.0% 5.5% 2.5% 0.9% 0.0%
Ryan Clulo 5.9% 6.5% 7.7% 7.7% 8.5% 9.2% 10.9% 11.3% 11.9% 9.3% 8.3% 2.4% 0.4%
Eric Villadsen 5.6% 5.3% 4.9% 5.7% 7.8% 7.6% 11.6% 11.2% 10.9% 13.5% 9.8% 4.9% 1.2%
Jacob Henley 1.7% 1.8% 2.3% 3.9% 4.3% 4.8% 5.6% 6.3% 11.4% 14.2% 21.0% 17.1% 5.6%
Nickolas Burr 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 2.0% 1.4% 1.9% 2.7% 3.7% 4.9% 7.1% 13.0% 37.2% 23.7%
Connor Lynch 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 1.2% 2.4% 2.8% 5.7% 18.6% 65.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.