Race 9A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Mason Wolters 13.0% 13.4% 12.8% 11.0% 12.6% 11.1% 9.2% 7.3% 4.5% 3.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Noah Rosenthal 6.4% 8.2% 8.7% 8.8% 9.0% 9.4% 11.8% 11.2% 10.9% 7.3% 5.7% 2.3% 0.3%
Tom Groskopf 12.2% 12.1% 12.9% 11.8% 11.4% 10.7% 9.8% 8.3% 6.3% 3.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0%
Eric Villadsen 4.3% 5.4% 5.7% 7.8% 5.7% 7.3% 10.7% 10.4% 13.6% 13.3% 10.4% 4.8% 0.6%
Ryan Mabie 3.8% 3.2% 2.5% 4.3% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 8.4% 12.1% 14.9% 18.5% 11.2% 2.5%
Carolyn Keck 10.6% 10.5% 10.6% 12.2% 9.8% 11.3% 9.2% 9.2% 7.4% 4.5% 4.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Soren Walljasper 17.9% 15.3% 15.9% 13.4% 10.4% 8.1% 8.3% 4.7% 3.1% 1.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alison Kent 17.4% 16.0% 14.5% 13.8% 12.6% 9.7% 7.3% 4.8% 2.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Jeff Zita 4.8% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 6.8% 8.0% 8.3% 12.9% 12.9% 12.8% 11.6% 5.7% 0.6%
Ryan Clulo 6.8% 7.3% 7.6% 7.1% 9.3% 10.2% 9.5% 11.1% 11.1% 9.9% 6.5% 3.1% 0.5%
Jacob Henley 1.6% 2.3% 2.2% 3.5% 4.6% 4.6% 6.6% 7.2% 9.4% 14.8% 20.5% 16.9% 5.8%
Connor Lynch 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 1.1% 0.9% 2.2% 1.3% 3.8% 5.9% 17.4% 65.9%
Nickolas Burr 0.8% 0.7% 1.2% 0.9% 1.5% 2.3% 2.0% 2.3% 5.2% 8.8% 12.9% 37.7% 23.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.