Race 10A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Mason Wolters 13.9% 12.3% 12.1% 10.9% 14.3% 10.8% 8.3% 7.8% 4.7% 2.7% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Alison Kent 18.2% 16.0% 14.3% 11.9% 12.9% 8.3% 8.3% 3.8% 3.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0%
Noah Rosenthal 5.8% 6.5% 10.0% 9.3% 8.5% 11.3% 10.0% 12.4% 10.6% 7.1% 6.6% 1.5% 0.4%
Carolyn Keck 9.8% 8.7% 11.8% 11.0% 10.0% 11.5% 10.2% 10.5% 7.6% 5.8% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Soren Walljasper 17.4% 17.7% 13.0% 12.9% 11.2% 8.9% 8.5% 4.7% 3.2% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Tom Groskopf 12.4% 13.6% 11.7% 12.1% 11.0% 11.0% 9.0% 7.7% 5.4% 4.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0%
Eric Villadsen 6.1% 5.7% 5.9% 6.9% 5.7% 7.8% 10.5% 10.1% 13.0% 12.5% 10.7% 4.5% 0.6%
Ryan Clulo 6.4% 7.6% 6.1% 8.6% 9.2% 10.2% 10.5% 12.1% 9.6% 10.0% 6.3% 3.0% 0.4%
Ryan Mabie 2.7% 3.6% 3.1% 4.8% 4.4% 6.2% 5.2% 7.8% 11.8% 16.2% 19.3% 12.3% 2.6%
Jacob Henley 1.9% 2.5% 3.4% 2.7% 3.4% 3.9% 5.6% 6.6% 10.4% 14.6% 21.2% 17.2% 6.6%
Jeff Zita 4.5% 4.5% 7.2% 7.5% 6.4% 7.3% 10.2% 12.4% 13.2% 11.5% 10.2% 4.2% 0.9%
Nickolas Burr 0.4% 1.2% 0.9% 1.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.8% 3.2% 4.7% 8.2% 14.4% 35.9% 22.9%
Connor Lynch 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 2.2% 3.3% 4.6% 19.8% 65.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.