Race 1B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Charlie Kutschenreuter 28.9% 22.4% 17.3% 12.1% 9.2% 4.2% 2.7% 2.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Zachary Herron 6.2% 6.6% 7.5% 9.0% 8.7% 10.1% 12.6% 10.7% 10.4% 9.4% 5.0% 3.1% 0.7%
James Sitter 10.7% 14.4% 13.3% 12.6% 11.9% 12.2% 9.1% 6.3% 5.1% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2%
Korbin Kierstead 14.8% 12.4% 14.2% 14.0% 11.6% 8.6% 8.9% 7.5% 3.6% 3.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Isabella Hamilton 11.0% 11.8% 11.0% 12.5% 10.4% 10.7% 10.8% 8.0% 5.9% 4.9% 2.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Libby Reeg 3.7% 5.0% 5.7% 5.7% 8.6% 7.3% 9.3% 10.5% 13.1% 13.3% 8.6% 7.5% 1.7%
Learon McGinn 1.4% 1.9% 2.3% 2.0% 2.6% 2.7% 4.7% 7.0% 6.0% 9.0% 15.5% 27.8% 17.1%
DJ Litts 9.6% 9.7% 11.1% 10.0% 11.5% 13.5% 10.1% 9.9% 6.5% 4.1% 3.1% 0.8% 0.1%
Michael Valverde 3.0% 4.9% 3.4% 5.4% 5.5% 7.4% 8.4% 9.4% 11.0% 14.0% 13.4% 10.4% 3.8%
Rachel Rantanen 6.9% 5.0% 7.2% 8.0% 10.0% 9.3% 9.9% 10.6% 12.0% 7.3% 9.1% 3.7% 1.0%
Blake Utz 1.6% 2.2% 2.9% 3.9% 5.5% 5.8% 6.8% 6.6% 12.2% 13.6% 17.0% 14.5% 7.4%
Nick Lane 1.7% 3.3% 3.7% 4.2% 3.6% 7.2% 5.5% 9.5% 10.8% 13.1% 17.5% 14.5% 5.4%
Alexander Slajus 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 0.9% 1.0% 1.2% 1.9% 2.7% 5.0% 6.3% 16.6% 62.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.