Race 2B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
James Sitter 11.4% 14.1% 13.7% 13.4% 10.2% 11.4% 9.8% 6.7% 4.1% 3.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Isabella Hamilton 10.5% 11.0% 10.8% 11.1% 12.0% 12.2% 10.9% 8.7% 5.3% 4.0% 2.3% 1.1% 0.1%
Charlie Kutschenreuter 31.0% 19.4% 17.5% 12.8% 9.2% 4.5% 2.4% 2.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Zachary Herron 5.2% 8.3% 7.1% 8.1% 10.9% 9.8% 9.7% 11.8% 11.9% 7.8% 6.4% 2.4% 0.6%
Libby Reeg 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 7.7% 5.7% 8.8% 10.6% 11.0% 10.4% 12.0% 11.3% 5.8% 2.0%
DJ Litts 9.7% 10.9% 10.7% 11.3% 11.5% 11.0% 9.6% 8.7% 8.1% 4.8% 2.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Michael Valverde 4.6% 3.2% 5.4% 4.8% 6.6% 7.5% 7.7% 9.2% 12.1% 13.3% 13.2% 9.2% 3.2%
Rachel Rantanen 5.3% 6.9% 6.7% 7.3% 9.5% 9.7% 10.2% 13.1% 11.3% 7.5% 8.2% 3.5% 0.8%
Blake Utz 1.9% 3.0% 2.9% 3.5% 4.5% 4.0% 6.2% 6.6% 11.3% 14.5% 16.6% 17.4% 7.6%
Learon McGinn 1.2% 1.8% 2.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.7% 4.1% 4.6% 7.9% 11.4% 13.2% 28.3% 17.8%
Alexander Slajus 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 1.0% 2.3% 1.7% 2.9% 4.9% 7.4% 17.2% 60.2%
Nick Lane 1.8% 3.4% 2.8% 4.2% 4.6% 5.7% 7.1% 10.1% 9.6% 13.4% 16.5% 13.7% 7.1%
Korbin Kierstead 12.1% 12.6% 15.1% 13.0% 12.0% 11.7% 9.4% 5.6% 4.3% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.