Race 4B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Brian Tobelmann 11.5% 11.5% 13.3% 13.0% 11.8% 10.4% 10.1% 6.8% 5.7% 3.6% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0%
DJ Litts 8.6% 11.0% 11.3% 9.7% 12.3% 12.6% 9.2% 9.6% 7.7% 4.3% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3%
Charlie Kutschenreuter 30.9% 20.6% 16.9% 12.0% 9.3% 5.5% 2.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Isabella Hamilton 10.0% 10.0% 12.4% 12.7% 11.1% 11.3% 9.8% 9.2% 6.8% 3.9% 2.1% 0.5% 0.2%
Korbin Kierstead 13.7% 16.1% 12.6% 12.5% 11.5% 11.6% 8.2% 6.7% 3.3% 2.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0%
Michael Valverde 3.4% 3.7% 5.0% 6.5% 5.5% 6.2% 8.7% 9.8% 13.6% 12.9% 11.6% 10.4% 2.7%
Zachary Herron 7.3% 7.2% 8.7% 8.3% 9.4% 9.9% 11.8% 11.7% 9.8% 7.7% 4.3% 3.0% 0.9%
Libby Reeg 3.0% 6.8% 4.6% 6.8% 6.7% 8.3% 8.9% 12.5% 10.9% 14.0% 9.8% 6.1% 1.6%
Austin Lee 1.7% 2.9% 2.6% 3.7% 4.3% 3.7% 5.0% 7.0% 10.2% 11.4% 18.2% 20.1% 9.2%
Rachel Rantanen 6.1% 6.0% 7.2% 7.8% 9.5% 10.7% 11.2% 9.1% 11.2% 8.2% 8.3% 3.8% 0.9%
Learon McGinn 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 2.8% 3.3% 2.8% 4.8% 5.5% 7.3% 12.2% 16.1% 26.3% 15.1%
Alexander Slajus 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.9% 1.0% 1.9% 2.3% 2.2% 4.5% 6.9% 14.4% 63.9%
Nick Lane 2.4% 2.5% 3.2% 3.7% 4.4% 6.0% 7.7% 8.5% 11.0% 14.5% 17.3% 13.6% 5.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.