Race 5B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Charlie Kutschenreuter 29.7% 21.4% 16.6% 13.8% 7.9% 5.4% 3.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Korbin Kierstead 13.7% 13.1% 14.6% 12.4% 13.2% 11.2% 7.8% 5.6% 4.0% 2.2% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0%
DJ Litts 8.0% 10.5% 10.4% 10.6% 12.9% 10.2% 11.6% 10.2% 6.5% 5.6% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Isabella Hamilton 9.8% 10.8% 10.5% 13.8% 10.6% 10.3% 10.9% 9.1% 6.1% 5.2% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3%
Libby Reeg 4.6% 4.7% 5.5% 6.9% 7.5% 7.6% 8.6% 10.1% 10.7% 12.5% 11.0% 7.8% 2.5%
James Sitter 12.3% 15.2% 13.0% 11.7% 12.4% 10.3% 8.6% 7.7% 3.5% 3.2% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Rachel Rantanen 6.3% 6.6% 8.2% 7.7% 7.6% 9.2% 11.4% 9.4% 12.2% 9.4% 7.2% 3.9% 0.9%
Michael Valverde 3.1% 4.9% 3.5% 4.6% 5.8% 5.9% 9.4% 11.1% 12.2% 11.5% 12.2% 12.3% 3.5%
Zachary Herron 6.1% 5.9% 8.6% 7.8% 9.0% 12.7% 10.4% 10.9% 9.0% 9.6% 5.8% 3.1% 1.1%
Nick Lane 2.7% 3.6% 3.3% 3.6% 3.6% 7.1% 7.1% 8.8% 11.4% 12.3% 14.2% 13.2% 9.1%
Austin Lee 1.9% 1.6% 3.1% 3.9% 4.5% 4.3% 6.1% 7.2% 11.4% 12.5% 16.1% 15.9% 11.5%
Learon McGinn 0.9% 1.1% 1.7% 1.9% 2.8% 3.8% 3.2% 5.7% 6.1% 8.1% 13.5% 22.4% 28.8%
David Millstein 0.9% 0.6% 1.0% 1.3% 2.2% 2.0% 1.9% 3.1% 6.4% 7.3% 11.8% 19.5% 42.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.