← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Georgetown University2.27+3.81vs Predicted
-
2Fordham University1.54+5.91vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Naval Academy2.57+1.35vs Predicted
-
4Cornell University1.21+4.19vs Predicted
-
5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.05+1.03vs Predicted
-
6George Washington University1.44+1.81vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.13+5.13vs Predicted
-
8Princeton University0.27+2.82vs Predicted
-
9Old Dominion University1.26-1.61vs Predicted
-
10University of Pennsylvania2.16-4.60vs Predicted
-
11Hampton University0.72+0.27vs Predicted
-
12SUNY Maritime College-0.13+1.08vs Predicted
-
13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13-6.82vs Predicted
-
14Christopher Newport University0.73-4.35vs Predicted
-
15Drexel University-0.850.00vs Predicted
-
16University of Virginia-0.78-1.48vs Predicted
-
17Washington College-0.55-3.02vs Predicted
-
18Webb Institute-0.08-5.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.81Georgetown University2.2713.6%1st Place
-
7.91Fordham University1.545.0%1st Place
-
4.35U. S. Naval Academy2.5717.8%1st Place
-
8.19Cornell University1.215.8%1st Place
-
6.03St. Mary's College of Maryland2.059.5%1st Place
-
7.81George Washington University1.445.2%1st Place
-
12.13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.131.5%1st Place
-
10.82Princeton University0.272.9%1st Place
-
7.39Old Dominion University1.266.7%1st Place
-
5.4University of Pennsylvania2.1612.2%1st Place
-
11.27Hampton University0.721.7%1st Place
-
13.08SUNY Maritime College-0.131.8%1st Place
-
6.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.139.6%1st Place
-
9.65Christopher Newport University0.733.4%1st Place
-
15.0Drexel University-0.850.5%1st Place
-
14.52University of Virginia-0.780.8%1st Place
-
13.98Washington College-0.550.8%1st Place
-
12.49Webb Institute-0.081.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Barnard | 13.6% | 13.9% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Henry Allgeier | 17.8% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gilda Dondona | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Charlie Anderson | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Robert Finora | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 5.2% |
| Jasper Waldman | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 2.1% |
| Blake Goodwin | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jackson McAliley | 12.2% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 2.4% |
| Luke Barker | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 8.8% |
| JJ Klempen | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Bendura | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Lucas Randle | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 12.4% | 17.3% | 32.1% |
| Mason Chapman | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 19.2% | 22.5% |
| Austin Latimer | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 13.8% | 15.9% | 18.9% |
| Marc Leyk | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 7.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.