Race 11B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Charlie Kutschenreuter 29.0% 21.7% 17.5% 13.1% 9.1% 3.8% 2.7% 1.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Korbin Kierstead 13.1% 13.9% 14.5% 13.6% 11.1% 10.2% 8.3% 7.0% 4.1% 2.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0%
DJ Litts 8.0% 10.9% 10.1% 12.3% 9.3% 11.6% 11.3% 9.6% 7.6% 5.2% 2.4% 1.4% 0.3%
Zachary Herron 6.3% 6.6% 7.3% 9.0% 10.8% 10.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 8.3% 7.5% 3.7% 1.5%
Michael Valverde 4.1% 3.4% 4.0% 6.1% 6.3% 7.4% 7.8% 8.4% 10.5% 13.5% 11.7% 11.4% 5.4%
Nick Lane 2.2% 3.5% 3.9% 3.6% 4.4% 5.5% 8.0% 7.9% 9.7% 12.8% 15.9% 13.7% 8.9%
Isabella Hamilton 11.1% 11.7% 11.6% 10.4% 13.1% 9.6% 9.9% 8.1% 6.6% 3.9% 2.5% 1.0% 0.5%
Brian Tobelmann 11.8% 11.7% 14.1% 11.3% 10.9% 13.1% 9.4% 7.3% 5.4% 2.4% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Libby Reeg 4.0% 5.2% 4.5% 6.2% 6.1% 7.0% 8.9% 10.2% 12.8% 13.3% 9.8% 7.6% 4.4%
Rachel Rantanen 6.5% 6.4% 7.3% 6.9% 9.4% 9.8% 9.6% 10.1% 10.8% 9.1% 7.2% 4.0% 2.9%
Austen Boyce 1.1% 1.6% 1.6% 2.4% 3.1% 4.3% 4.1% 5.8% 7.1% 10.1% 14.0% 20.1% 24.7%
Learon McGinn 1.0% 1.1% 1.4% 1.9% 2.3% 2.9% 4.5% 5.7% 6.6% 7.2% 10.5% 19.8% 35.1%
Blake Utz 1.8% 2.3% 2.2% 3.2% 4.1% 4.3% 6.0% 8.7% 8.1% 11.7% 15.7% 15.9% 16.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.