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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University0.97+5.93vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.77+2.12vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.38+0.28vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.20-0.09vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy1.18+1.98vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College-0.52+5.00vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67+1.01vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University0.65+1.13vs Predicted
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9Princeton University-0.32+2.91vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-2.07vs Predicted
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11Fordham University0.71-2.55vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-1.25vs Predicted
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13Columbia University0.44-4.56vs Predicted
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14George Washington University0.93-6.44vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64-3.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.93Old Dominion University0.975.8%1st Place
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4.12University of Pennsylvania1.7716.3%1st Place
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3.28Cornell University2.3825.8%1st Place
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3.91Georgetown University2.2017.2%1st Place
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6.98U. S. Naval Academy1.185.9%1st Place
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11.0SUNY Maritime College-0.521.5%1st Place
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8.01St. Mary's College of Maryland0.674.1%1st Place
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9.13Christopher Newport University0.653.1%1st Place
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11.91Princeton University-0.321.1%1st Place
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7.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.913.6%1st Place
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8.45Fordham University0.713.1%1st Place
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10.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.2%1st Place
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8.44Columbia University0.444.3%1st Place
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7.56George Washington University0.934.9%1st Place
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11.59Rochester Institute of Technology-0.641.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianna Dewey | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Sofia Segalla | 16.3% | 16.0% | 14.3% | 14.0% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 25.8% | 19.4% | 16.9% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 17.2% | 17.8% | 16.5% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 13.7% | 15.4% | 17.6% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 1.9% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 4.1% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 13.1% | 17.8% | 29.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 15.9% | 13.9% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 3.2% |
| Avery Canavan | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Kayla Maguire | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 18.2% | 23.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.