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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.77+3.22vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University0.65+7.08vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.38+0.43vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.18+3.03vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.20-1.12vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10+5.00vs Predicted
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7Columbia University0.44+1.43vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-0.01vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University0.97-2.09vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-2.25vs Predicted
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11Fordham University0.71-2.61vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College-0.52-1.07vs Predicted
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13George Washington University0.93-5.53vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64-2.46vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-0.32-3.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.22University of Pennsylvania1.7714.9%1st Place
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9.08Christopher Newport University0.652.6%1st Place
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3.43Cornell University2.3823.4%1st Place
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7.03U. S. Naval Academy1.186.6%1st Place
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3.88Georgetown University2.2018.1%1st Place
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11.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.101.6%1st Place
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8.43Columbia University0.443.7%1st Place
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7.99St. Mary's College of Maryland0.674.7%1st Place
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6.91Old Dominion University0.976.0%1st Place
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7.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.915.2%1st Place
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8.39Fordham University0.713.4%1st Place
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10.93SUNY Maritime College-0.521.8%1st Place
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7.47George Washington University0.935.1%1st Place
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11.54Rochester Institute of Technology-0.641.5%1st Place
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11.94Princeton University-0.321.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 14.9% | 15.8% | 14.4% | 14.8% | 11.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 4.2% |
| Bridget Green | 23.4% | 18.5% | 16.2% | 14.0% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Piper Holthus | 18.1% | 17.2% | 15.6% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 16.6% | 16.6% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 2.5% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.1% |
| Gianna Dewey | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 2.5% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 15.3% | 16.9% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Kayla Maguire | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 13.7% | 17.8% | 22.9% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 13.0% | 17.8% | 28.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.