← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Georgetown University2.20+2.88vs Predicted
-
2Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+5.85vs Predicted
-
3Cornell University2.38+0.35vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Naval Academy1.18+3.02vs Predicted
-
5Old Dominion University0.97+2.01vs Predicted
-
6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67+1.92vs Predicted
-
7University of Pennsylvania1.77-2.74vs Predicted
-
8Columbia University0.44+0.52vs Predicted
-
9Christopher Newport University0.65+0.10vs Predicted
-
10Fordham University0.71-1.64vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-0.29vs Predicted
-
12George Washington University0.93-4.49vs Predicted
-
13SUNY Maritime College-0.52-1.97vs Predicted
-
14Princeton University-0.32-2.00vs Predicted
-
15Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64-3.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.88Georgetown University2.2018.0%1st Place
-
7.85Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.914.4%1st Place
-
3.35Cornell University2.3823.4%1st Place
-
7.02U. S. Naval Academy1.186.0%1st Place
-
7.01Old Dominion University0.976.0%1st Place
-
7.92St. Mary's College of Maryland0.674.3%1st Place
-
4.26University of Pennsylvania1.7716.2%1st Place
-
8.52Columbia University0.444.1%1st Place
-
9.1Christopher Newport University0.653.2%1st Place
-
8.36Fordham University0.714.1%1st Place
-
10.71U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.101.8%1st Place
-
7.51George Washington University0.934.8%1st Place
-
11.03SUNY Maritime College-0.521.5%1st Place
-
12.0Princeton University-0.321.1%1st Place
-
11.5Rochester Institute of Technology-0.641.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 18.0% | 17.6% | 15.1% | 14.8% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.2% |
| Bridget Green | 23.4% | 19.4% | 17.0% | 14.0% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Gianna Dewey | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Sofia Segalla | 16.2% | 15.7% | 14.2% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 3.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 3.9% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 16.1% | 14.8% |
| Avery Canavan | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 13.2% | 16.3% | 16.6% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 13.3% | 18.6% | 28.9% |
| Kayla Maguire | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 12.7% | 15.9% | 24.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.