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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.20+2.89vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.38+1.39vs Predicted
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3Fordham University0.71+5.38vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.77+0.27vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University0.97+1.81vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67+1.93vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.65+1.96vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy1.18-0.97vs Predicted
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9George Washington University0.93-1.51vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-2.03vs Predicted
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11Columbia University0.44-2.36vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College-0.52-0.92vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.32-1.11vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64-2.54vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-4.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.89Georgetown University2.2017.2%1st Place
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3.39Cornell University2.3824.2%1st Place
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8.38Fordham University0.713.9%1st Place
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4.27University of Pennsylvania1.7715.8%1st Place
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6.81Old Dominion University0.976.2%1st Place
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7.93St. Mary's College of Maryland0.674.3%1st Place
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8.96Christopher Newport University0.653.9%1st Place
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7.03U. S. Naval Academy1.185.3%1st Place
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7.49George Washington University0.934.9%1st Place
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7.97Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.914.6%1st Place
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8.64Columbia University0.443.6%1st Place
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11.08SUNY Maritime College-0.521.7%1st Place
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11.89Princeton University-0.321.4%1st Place
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11.46Rochester Institute of Technology-0.641.1%1st Place
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10.81U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.101.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 17.2% | 19.4% | 15.3% | 13.1% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 24.2% | 19.1% | 15.2% | 14.1% | 10.2% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 2.4% |
| Sofia Segalla | 15.8% | 16.1% | 14.1% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 4.5% |
| Ava Farley | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Avery Canavan | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 2.3% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 15.7% | 18.4% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 12.8% | 17.7% | 29.3% |
| Kayla Maguire | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 16.7% | 23.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 14.1% | 15.3% | 14.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.