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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University0.71+7.38vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.77+2.25vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.38+0.37vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.20-0.01vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+2.78vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University0.97+0.94vs Predicted
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7George Washington University0.93+0.44vs Predicted
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8Columbia University0.44+0.28vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.65+0.12vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy1.18-2.97vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-3.01vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.320.00vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-2.04vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.52-3.04vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64-3.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.38Fordham University0.713.6%1st Place
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4.25University of Pennsylvania1.7715.2%1st Place
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3.37Cornell University2.3823.5%1st Place
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3.99Georgetown University2.2017.8%1st Place
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7.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.914.5%1st Place
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6.94Old Dominion University0.976.0%1st Place
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7.44George Washington University0.934.8%1st Place
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8.28Columbia University0.444.9%1st Place
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9.12Christopher Newport University0.653.1%1st Place
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7.03U. S. Naval Academy1.185.8%1st Place
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7.99St. Mary's College of Maryland0.674.2%1st Place
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12.0Princeton University-0.321.5%1st Place
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10.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.1%1st Place
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10.96SUNY Maritime College-0.521.8%1st Place
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11.49Rochester Institute of Technology-0.641.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 1.9% |
| Sofia Segalla | 15.2% | 16.3% | 14.1% | 13.5% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 23.5% | 19.6% | 16.4% | 13.4% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 17.8% | 16.9% | 14.9% | 13.1% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| Gianna Dewey | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Avery Canavan | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 2.5% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 4.2% |
| Ava Farley | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 16.5% | 30.9% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 16.1% | 16.2% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 16.4% | 16.5% |
| Kayla Maguire | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 17.5% | 22.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.