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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.77+3.21vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.20+1.88vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University0.97+3.93vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.18+3.01vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67+2.88vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.38-2.62vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+0.73vs Predicted
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8Columbia University0.44+0.48vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10+1.93vs Predicted
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10George Washington University0.93-2.58vs Predicted
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11Fordham University0.71-2.71vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.32-0.10vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.65-3.94vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.52-2.66vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64-3.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.21University of Pennsylvania1.7716.4%1st Place
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3.88Georgetown University2.2018.1%1st Place
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6.93Old Dominion University0.976.6%1st Place
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7.01U. S. Naval Academy1.185.7%1st Place
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7.88St. Mary's College of Maryland0.673.9%1st Place
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3.38Cornell University2.3823.1%1st Place
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7.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.914.5%1st Place
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8.48Columbia University0.444.0%1st Place
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10.93U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.101.9%1st Place
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7.42George Washington University0.935.0%1st Place
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8.29Fordham University0.714.3%1st Place
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11.9Princeton University-0.321.2%1st Place
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9.06Christopher Newport University0.652.9%1st Place
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11.34SUNY Maritime College-0.521.2%1st Place
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11.55Rochester Institute of Technology-0.641.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 16.4% | 16.5% | 14.5% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 18.1% | 17.2% | 15.8% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Ava Farley | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Bridget Green | 23.1% | 20.4% | 16.2% | 13.2% | 10.3% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 1.7% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 2.7% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 17.4% | 16.3% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 1.4% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 17.0% | 28.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 4.2% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 13.5% | 16.8% | 18.9% |
| Kayla Maguire | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 17.3% | 23.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.