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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+3.41vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.44+2.74vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego0.43+4.26vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.47-1.15vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles0.61+1.95vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.52-3.24vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles-0.81+3.53vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California0.85-2.72vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.39-2.54vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06-2.21vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.47-2.26vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-0.94-1.94vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-1.88-1.17vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-3.28-0.61vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.59-6.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.41Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.1%1st Place
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4.74University of Southern California1.440.1%1st Place
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7.26University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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2.85University of Southern California2.470.3%1st Place
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6.95University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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2.76University of California at Santa Barbara2.520.3%1st Place
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10.53University of California at Los Angeles-0.810.0%1st Place
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6.28University of Southern California0.850.0%1st Place
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7.46University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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8.79Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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9.74Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.470.0%1st Place
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11.06University of California at Los Angeles-0.940.0%1st Place
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12.83University of California at Los Angeles-1.880.0%1st Place
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14.39Arizona State University-3.280.0%1st Place
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9.96Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.590.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Brough | 12.5% | 14.4% | 12.3% | 15.4% | 13.8% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christina Gasparich | 9.0% | 13.2% | 13.0% | 13.9% | 14.9% | 11.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 4.3% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 27.6% | 22.2% | 19.0% | 13.9% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 13.6% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Harrison Vandervort | 26.8% | 24.8% | 19.8% | 13.9% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Macpherson | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 16.5% | 18.4% | 11.9% | 2.0% |
| Hollis Barth | 4.9% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 14.1% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 2.5% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Dylan Rinker | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 13.7% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Liam Chaffey | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 7.7% | 0.6% |
| Thomas Garcia | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 16.7% | 21.3% | 14.3% | 3.3% |
| Marina Lindsay | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 12.9% | 41.7% | 17.1% |
| Garrison Murphy | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 13.4% | 74.6% |
| Thomas Niemisto | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 16.8% | 15.5% | 6.3% | 1.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.