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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy1.18+5.84vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.38+1.35vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.77+1.13vs Predicted
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4George Washington University0.93+3.35vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.20-1.08vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University0.97+0.88vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.65+2.14vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College-0.52+2.92vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-0.96vs Predicted
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10Fordham University0.71-1.73vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-0.06vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-3.98vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.32-0.99vs Predicted
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14Columbia University0.44-5.37vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64-3.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.84U. S. Naval Academy1.186.5%1st Place
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3.35Cornell University2.3824.0%1st Place
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4.13University of Pennsylvania1.7716.2%1st Place
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7.35George Washington University0.935.5%1st Place
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3.92Georgetown University2.2018.9%1st Place
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6.88Old Dominion University0.975.1%1st Place
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9.14Christopher Newport University0.653.5%1st Place
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10.92SUNY Maritime College-0.521.8%1st Place
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8.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.914.0%1st Place
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8.27Fordham University0.713.8%1st Place
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10.94U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.101.5%1st Place
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8.02St. Mary's College of Maryland0.674.6%1st Place
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12.01Princeton University-0.320.8%1st Place
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8.63Columbia University0.443.0%1st Place
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11.55Rochester Institute of Technology-0.641.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ava Farley | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Bridget Green | 24.0% | 19.5% | 16.6% | 14.0% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 16.2% | 16.7% | 14.9% | 14.1% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Piper Holthus | 18.9% | 16.9% | 14.0% | 13.7% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 4.8% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 16.0% | 16.7% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 2.2% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 14.1% | 16.8% | 15.1% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 1.9% |
| Carly Mraz | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 16.8% | 30.5% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 2.4% |
| Kayla Maguire | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 13.2% | 17.1% | 23.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.