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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California2.47+1.83vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.52+0.63vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.44+1.79vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.47+5.71vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles0.61+1.97vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61-2.52vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06+0.57vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-0.81+1.57vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.39-2.55vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-0.94-0.08vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California0.85-5.69vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego0.43-5.48vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.59-3.82vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-1.88-2.28vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-3.28-1.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.83University of Southern California2.470.3%1st Place
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2.63University of California at Santa Barbara2.520.3%1st Place
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4.79University of Southern California1.440.1%1st Place
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9.71Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.470.0%1st Place
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6.97University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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4.48Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.1%1st Place
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8.57Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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10.57University of California at Los Angeles-0.810.0%1st Place
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7.45University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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10.92University of California at Los Angeles-0.940.0%1st Place
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6.31University of Southern California0.850.0%1st Place
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7.52University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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10.18Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.590.0%1st Place
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12.72University of California at Los Angeles-1.880.0%1st Place
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14.34Arizona State University-3.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Coakley | 27.2% | 25.4% | 17.3% | 13.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Harrison Vandervort | 32.5% | 23.4% | 17.5% | 12.1% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christina Gasparich | 9.5% | 11.3% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 13.9% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Chaffey | 0.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 13.7% | 12.4% | 7.6% | 1.1% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 13.8% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 9.3% | 12.7% | 15.3% | 15.6% | 16.8% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Rinker | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 0.2% |
| Sarah Macpherson | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 12.7% | 14.6% | 19.0% | 12.1% | 2.8% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 14.0% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Garcia | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 13.8% | 20.7% | 15.0% | 3.4% |
| Hollis Barth | 4.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 3.5% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Niemisto | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 14.0% | 15.5% | 16.7% | 9.0% | 1.1% |
| Marina Lindsay | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 13.8% | 39.8% | 15.9% |
| Garrison Murphy | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 12.1% | 75.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.