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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.52+1.73vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California0.85+4.15vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California2.47-0.21vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+0.45vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California1.44-0.13vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.47+3.80vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.61-0.13vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-0.94+2.84vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.43-1.67vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.59+0.08vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego0.39-3.50vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-0.81-1.23vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-1.88-1.18vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-3.28-0.60vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06-7.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.73University of California at Santa Barbara2.520.3%1st Place
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6.15University of Southern California0.850.0%1st Place
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2.79University of Southern California2.470.3%1st Place
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4.45Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.1%1st Place
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4.87University of Southern California1.440.1%1st Place
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9.8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.470.0%1st Place
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6.87University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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10.84University of California at Los Angeles-0.940.0%1st Place
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7.33University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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10.08Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.590.0%1st Place
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7.5University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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10.77University of California at Los Angeles-0.810.0%1st Place
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12.82University of California at Los Angeles-1.880.0%1st Place
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14.4Arizona State University-3.280.0%1st Place
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8.59Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Vandervort | 29.8% | 25.2% | 16.4% | 13.2% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hollis Barth | 4.6% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 28.6% | 22.0% | 19.7% | 13.6% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 10.7% | 13.6% | 15.4% | 14.7% | 13.7% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christina Gasparich | 9.8% | 11.0% | 12.7% | 12.9% | 13.6% | 14.5% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Chaffey | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 12.0% | 14.5% | 14.9% | 12.5% | 6.1% | 1.7% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Garcia | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 14.1% | 20.2% | 16.0% | 2.0% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 2.3% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Niemisto | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 15.3% | 15.5% | 14.5% | 6.8% | 2.2% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Sarah Macpherson | 1.6% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 18.7% | 18.0% | 12.3% | 2.6% |
| Marina Lindsay | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 15.9% | 39.8% | 17.3% |
| Garrison Murphy | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 15.0% | 73.9% |
| Dylan Rinker | 1.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 13.8% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.