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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California2.47+1.84vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.52+0.63vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+1.41vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.59+5.99vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.85+1.31vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.44-1.14vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06+1.65vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.47+1.73vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles0.61-2.14vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.43-2.54vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego0.39-4.46vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-0.81-2.24vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-1.88-1.20vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-0.94-4.16vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-3.28-1.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.84University of Southern California2.470.3%1st Place
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2.63University of California at Santa Barbara2.520.3%1st Place
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4.41Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.1%1st Place
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9.99Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.590.0%1st Place
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6.31University of Southern California0.850.1%1st Place
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4.86University of Southern California1.440.1%1st Place
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8.65Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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9.73Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.470.0%1st Place
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6.86University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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7.46University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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7.54University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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10.76University of California at Los Angeles-0.810.0%1st Place
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12.8University of California at Los Angeles-1.880.0%1st Place
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10.84University of California at Los Angeles-0.940.0%1st Place
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14.33Arizona State University-3.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Coakley | 27.4% | 24.8% | 18.4% | 11.7% | 9.0% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Harrison Vandervort | 31.7% | 25.1% | 17.2% | 11.6% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 11.3% | 11.8% | 16.6% | 15.7% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Niemisto | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 8.5% | 2.0% |
| Hollis Barth | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christina Gasparich | 7.2% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 15.1% | 16.9% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Rinker | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 0.4% |
| Liam Chaffey | 1.5% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 15.8% | 13.4% | 5.7% | 1.7% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 3.3% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Sarah Macpherson | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 16.9% | 19.0% | 13.9% | 1.4% |
| Marina Lindsay | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 16.6% | 37.8% | 18.3% |
| Thomas Garcia | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 12.9% | 15.6% | 19.5% | 14.4% | 2.4% |
| Garrison Murphy | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 4.8% | 13.8% | 73.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.