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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California2.47+1.84vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+2.39vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.52-0.31vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California0.85+2.28vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles0.61+2.03vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.44-1.16vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06+1.74vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-0.81+2.78vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.43-1.58vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.39-2.36vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-0.94-0.91vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.47-2.96vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-1.88-0.85vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-1.82-2.09vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.59-5.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.84University of Southern California2.470.3%1st Place
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4.39Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.1%1st Place
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2.69University of California at Santa Barbara2.520.3%1st Place
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6.28University of Southern California0.850.1%1st Place
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7.03University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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4.84University of Southern California1.440.1%1st Place
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8.74Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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10.78University of California at Los Angeles-0.810.0%1st Place
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7.42University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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7.64University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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11.09University of California at Los Angeles-0.940.0%1st Place
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10.04Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.470.0%1st Place
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13.15University of California at Los Angeles-1.880.0%1st Place
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12.91Arizona State University-1.820.0%1st Place
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10.13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.590.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Coakley | 27.5% | 24.4% | 17.9% | 12.8% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 10.9% | 15.1% | 14.5% | 14.6% | 13.7% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Harrison Vandervort | 30.8% | 22.9% | 17.6% | 15.0% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hollis Barth | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 3.7% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Christina Gasparich | 8.6% | 9.9% | 13.2% | 14.7% | 17.0% | 13.1% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Rinker | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 0.9% |
| Sarah Macpherson | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 12.3% | 12.5% | 16.9% | 13.8% | 7.2% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 2.4% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Thomas Garcia | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 13.9% | 14.9% | 16.8% | 9.1% |
| Liam Chaffey | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 8.7% | 2.7% |
| Marina Lindsay | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 11.5% | 20.6% | 41.9% |
| Andrew Kinton | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 13.7% | 22.9% | 34.0% |
| Thomas Niemisto | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 13.4% | 14.0% | 10.8% | 3.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.