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📊 Prediction Accuracy
73.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.52+1.75vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California2.47+0.77vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+1.41vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.44+0.87vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.85+1.36vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.61+1.01vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles-0.81+3.66vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego0.39-0.43vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06-0.25vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-0.94+1.11vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego0.43-3.52vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.59-1.61vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-1.88+0.14vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.47-4.15vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-1.82-3.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.75University of California at Santa Barbara2.520.3%1st Place
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2.77University of Southern California2.470.3%1st Place
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4.41Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.1%1st Place
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4.87University of Southern California1.440.1%1st Place
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6.36University of Southern California0.850.1%1st Place
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7.01University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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10.66University of California at Los Angeles-0.810.0%1st Place
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7.57University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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8.75Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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11.11University of California at Los Angeles-0.940.0%1st Place
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7.48University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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10.39Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.590.0%1st Place
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13.14University of California at Los Angeles-1.880.0%1st Place
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9.85Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.470.0%1st Place
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12.87Arizona State University-1.820.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Vandervort | 30.0% | 23.2% | 18.0% | 12.9% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 28.9% | 24.2% | 18.4% | 11.9% | 8.4% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 11.1% | 12.9% | 15.4% | 14.7% | 13.9% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christina Gasparich | 8.2% | 11.1% | 14.2% | 14.4% | 13.9% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hollis Barth | 5.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Sarah Macpherson | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 14.9% | 14.6% | 6.5% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Dylan Rinker | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Thomas Garcia | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 16.7% | 16.0% | 9.5% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Thomas Niemisto | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 16.1% | 15.2% | 10.2% | 3.8% |
| Marina Lindsay | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 23.4% | 40.0% |
| Liam Chaffey | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 14.0% | 10.9% | 13.7% | 8.4% | 2.6% |
| Andrew Kinton | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 21.8% | 35.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.