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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.52+1.76vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+2.40vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.44+1.80vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.47-1.17vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.85+1.35vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.61+1.01vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06+1.69vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-0.81+2.76vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.39-1.49vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.47-0.05vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego0.43-3.51vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-1.88+1.19vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.59-2.62vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-0.94-2.95vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-1.82-2.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.76University of California at Santa Barbara2.520.3%1st Place
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4.4Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.1%1st Place
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4.8University of Southern California1.440.1%1st Place
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2.83University of Southern California2.470.3%1st Place
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6.35University of Southern California0.850.1%1st Place
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7.01University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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8.69Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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10.76University of California at Los Angeles-0.810.0%1st Place
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7.51University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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9.95Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.470.0%1st Place
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7.49University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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13.19University of California at Los Angeles-1.880.0%1st Place
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10.38Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.590.0%1st Place
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11.05University of California at Los Angeles-0.940.0%1st Place
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12.84Arizona State University-1.820.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Vandervort | 28.1% | 26.2% | 17.9% | 12.2% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 12.2% | 12.8% | 15.4% | 14.7% | 14.2% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christina Gasparich | 9.4% | 11.7% | 13.2% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 13.8% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 28.5% | 21.6% | 18.3% | 14.1% | 10.1% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hollis Barth | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 13.7% | 11.6% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Dylan Rinker | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 1.1% |
| Sarah Macpherson | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 13.9% | 16.4% | 13.1% | 7.1% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 2.6% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 13.4% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Liam Chaffey | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 2.7% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Marina Lindsay | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 7.9% | 12.8% | 23.6% | 39.4% |
| Thomas Niemisto | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 13.5% | 13.9% | 15.7% | 9.8% | 4.8% |
| Thomas Garcia | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 16.2% | 14.6% | 8.9% |
| Andrew Kinton | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 13.0% | 23.3% | 34.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.