← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Cornell University2.38+2.37vs Predicted
-
2Georgetown University2.20+1.90vs Predicted
-
3Fordham University0.71+5.52vs Predicted
-
4Christopher Newport University0.65+5.08vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Naval Academy1.18+1.96vs Predicted
-
6George Washington University0.93+1.45vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10+3.87vs Predicted
-
8Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-0.22vs Predicted
-
9Columbia University0.44-0.63vs Predicted
-
10University of Pennsylvania1.77-5.89vs Predicted
-
11Old Dominion University0.97-4.20vs Predicted
-
12Princeton University-0.320.00vs Predicted
-
13SUNY Maritime College-0.52-1.95vs Predicted
-
14Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64-2.27vs Predicted
-
15St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-6.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.37Cornell University2.3823.2%1st Place
-
3.9Georgetown University2.2018.2%1st Place
-
8.52Fordham University0.713.0%1st Place
-
9.08Christopher Newport University0.653.2%1st Place
-
6.96U. S. Naval Academy1.185.5%1st Place
-
7.45George Washington University0.935.3%1st Place
-
10.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.101.9%1st Place
-
7.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.915.6%1st Place
-
8.37Columbia University0.443.7%1st Place
-
4.11University of Pennsylvania1.7716.8%1st Place
-
6.8Old Dominion University0.976.0%1st Place
-
12.0Princeton University-0.321.0%1st Place
-
11.05SUNY Maritime College-0.521.8%1st Place
-
11.73Rochester Institute of Technology-0.641.2%1st Place
-
8.03St. Mary's College of Maryland0.673.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Green | 23.2% | 21.3% | 16.1% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 18.2% | 16.0% | 16.9% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 2.1% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 4.7% |
| Ava Farley | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 15.8% | 14.4% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 1.2% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 2.4% |
| Sofia Segalla | 16.8% | 16.4% | 14.9% | 14.3% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 17.9% | 29.4% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Kayla Maguire | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 16.8% | 25.7% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.6% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.