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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.50+3.27vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego0.31+5.30vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.38+4.25vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.33-1.29vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles0.92+0.89vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California-0.16+3.01vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-0.11+1.48vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-2.23vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.62-2.35vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles1.43-5.46vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-0.66-0.75vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University-0.62-1.83vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-1.18-1.64vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.20-2.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.27University of California at Santa Barbara1.500.1%1st Place
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7.3University of California at San Diego0.310.0%1st Place
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7.25Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.380.1%1st Place
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2.71University of Southern California2.330.3%1st Place
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5.89University of California at Los Angeles0.920.1%1st Place
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9.01University of Southern California-0.160.0%1st Place
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8.48University of California at San Diego-0.110.0%1st Place
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5.77Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.1%1st Place
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6.65Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.620.1%1st Place
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4.54University of California at Los Angeles1.430.1%1st Place
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10.25University of California at Los Angeles-0.660.0%1st Place
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10.17Arizona State University-0.620.0%1st Place
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11.36University of California at San Diego-1.180.0%1st Place
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11.36Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.200.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claire Hunt | 14.5% | 16.4% | 15.4% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Brett Farrell | 4.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Kathryn Cornella | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 1.2% |
| Peter Wong | 31.7% | 24.8% | 15.5% | 12.7% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 5.7% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Mackenzie Freeman | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 5.6% |
| Natalie Hopper | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 13.7% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 3.8% |
| Joseph Lausten | 8.1% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Maria-Elena Falahee-Walker | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Laura Roudebush | 13.0% | 12.4% | 14.5% | 13.9% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cullen Quine | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 14.6% | 15.3% | 14.7% |
| Sierra Apillanes | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 15.6% | 14.5% | 13.4% |
| David Luu | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 20.1% | 29.5% |
| Cassandra Isaacson | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 12.3% | 21.1% | 29.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.